wheat price market: high price of wheat, "watching", the market is to rise again

Since entering November, with the continuous increase in the number of wheat put into the country's temporary storage, the market pattern of tight regional supply has eased in the previous period. The wheat prices in the main producing areas have generally stabilized and stabilized, and local prices fluctuated slightly. Market monitoring shows that as of the end of November, the price of ordinary wheat into the mill in the main producing area is 2,500-2,600 yuan/ton, which is between 20 and 40 yuan/ton compared with the price at the beginning of the month. The increase in the number of wheat put into the country's temporary storage has somewhat eased the contradiction between supply and demand in the market. It is expected that in the latter part of November, when the market purchase and sales are relatively stable, the price of wheat will be stable.

The high price of wheat has stabilized and the basics are basically in line.

Since entering November, the state has taken measures to increase policy control and increase the amount of wheat placed in the temporary storage. The purchasing and selling heat of the wheat market has cooled significantly compared with that in October. At the same time, due to the weakening of the market's bullish mentality, the willingness of some grain-holding entities to sell wheat is also increasing. The recent contradiction between supply and demand in the market has basically eased, and most of the wheat prices in the main producing areas have stabilized.

At present, the price of ordinary new wheat entering the factory in Hebei and Shandong milling enterprises is 2560~2620 yuan/ton, and the price in most areas is higher than the cost of temporary storage wheat. The prices of ordinary new wheat in Henan, Jiangsu, Anhui and Hubei are 2,500-2,560 yuan/ton, and prices in some areas are basically the same as those of policy grain sources.

Since November, with the launch of the market in 2015, the price of Pumai has stabilized and stabilized. Affected by this, the price of high-quality strong gluten wheat in the main producing areas has remained stable in the near future. At present, the purchase price of medium-quality wheat in Shijiazhuang, Hebei Province, is 2,680 yuan / ton, the purchase price of medium-quality wheat in Jinan, Shandong, Jinan 17 is 2,690 yuan / ton, and the price difference of pu-pu wheat is about 100 yuan / ton, compared with the same period last year. Drop 180 yuan / ton.

Affected by the recent smog weather, the price of corn has increased in some areas, and the price of corn and wheat has increased slightly. At present, the price of corn and wheat in Shandong is 0.72, which is basically the same as that in the middle; Hebei is 0.66, up 0.01; Henan is 0.73, up 0.01. Since wheat still has no price advantage compared to corn forage, the National Grain and Oils Information Center predicted in November that the 2016/2017 wheat feed consumption was 8 million tons, down 2 million tons from lastmonth.

Mai Qiang is still weak in the price of bran balance. According to the milling company, the recent operating rate of the company has been reduced, resulting in a decrease in the supply of flour. In addition, the current wheat price is still at a high position, and the operation of the flour price has basically remained stable and strong.

At present, the ex-factory price of special powder for the main production area is 3060~3180 yuan/ton, which is 20~40 yuan/ton higher than the beginning of the month. According to monitoring, the overall price of flour in the production area fell by 40-80 yuan/ton in July, and it has rebounded by more than 140 yuan/ton since August, but it is still lower than the increase in wheat prices.

Due to the low operating rate of the milling companies, the limited supply of bran, coupled with the cold weather and prolonged storage time, the recent increase in the price of bran has been “eye-catching” and has risen again. At present, the price of bran in the main producing area is generally increased to 1,480-1,560 yuan / ton, up 120 yuan / ton from the beginning of the month.

Although the current wheat and flour market is still in a “male strong and weak” pattern, the recent increase in bran prices has basically balanced the processing profits of the milling companies. The monitoring shows that the current theoretical processing profit of Shijiazhuang milling enterprises in Hebei is -27 yuan / ton, Shandong Jinan is 6 yuan / ton, Henan Zhengzhou 63 yuan / ton, the average of the three places is 14 yuan / ton, an increase of 48 yuan from the beginning of the month. /Ton.

The auction gradually goes to the stock to welcome the opportunity. Since the beginning of November, the number of wheat put into the state's temporary storage has increased. Although the volume of transactions has fluctuated widely in the week and the inter-regional transactions have performed differently, the overall transaction is still active. From November 1st to 15th, the three trading volumes were 473,200 tons, 189,700 tons and 206,200 tons respectively. The turnover rates were 16.68%, 7.18% and 7.9% respectively. For the auction market that has been sluggish since the second half of last year. It is not too much to describe it with "Liu Hua Ming Ming".

Judging from the regional market transactions, after the large-scale auctions at the beginning of the month in Hebei and Shandong, the transaction rates of the two markets have declined, indicating that the tightness of the grain sources in the two places has been basically alleviated. 

Since November, the volume of wheat in Jiangsu has been increasing. The main reason is that the quality of stagnant grain sources in Jiangsu market is generally biased, and the supply of wheat in line with the quality requirements of milling enterprises is tight.

On November 18th, Jiangsu Changzhou Grain and Oil Storage and Transportation Company auctioned and sold 3,939 tons of red wheat in 2015. The starting price was 2,420 yuan/ton, the highest transaction price was 2,600 yuan/ton, and the lowest transaction price was 2,545 yuan/ton. 2,577.23 yuan / ton. The auction competition is fierce, with a maximum premium of RMB 180/ton.

It is reported that since November 22, Jiangsu Province has also begun to routinely launch wheat for 2015. It is estimated that the market pattern of tight supply and demand in the market will gradually ease.

Recently, as the price of wheat has continued to rise, the prices of major producing areas have reached or even exceeded the cost of policy grain procurement, and the price of new wheat has basically been in line. The author believes that the current access to the market for wheat into the market has basically been opened up. In the case of a large increase in concentrated purchases this year and relatively tight market circulation, the focus of wheat procurement in the post-production enterprises will gradually shift to the auction. Policy wheat “destocking” may usher in new opportunities.

Demand for wheat in the peak season will remain strong.

According to the usual practice, after entering December, the demand for flour is gradually increasing, and the demand for wheat procurement is increasing. The increase in demand will become an important factor driving the upward price of wheat. As the 2017 Spring Festival is earlier than the previous year, the flour-making enterprises may start up before the holiday, and with this support, the chances of the wheat price being expected to be strong are still relatively large.

From the perspective of supply and demand in the circulation market, high-quality wheat in the market will become less and less over time. Although some large-scale milling companies will purchase grain through the national trading market, some small and medium-sized enterprises will still rely on market wheat to maintain production, and the market will continue to support wheat prices.